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University of Regensburg

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Title: Predicting Assignment Submissions in a Multi-class Classification Problem

Authors: Bogdan Drăgulescu, Marian Bucos, Radu Vasiu


Predicting student failure is an important task that can empower educators to counteract the factors that affect student performance. In this paper, a part of the bigger problem of predicting student failure is addressed: predicting the students that do not complete their assignment tasks. For solving this problem, real data collected by our university’s educational platform was used. Because the problem consisted of predicting one of three possible classes (multi-class classification), the appropriate algorithms and methods were selected. Several experiments were carried out to find the best approach for this prediction problem and the used data set. An approach of time segmentation is proposed in order to facilitate the prediction from early on. Methods that address the problems of high dimensionality and imbalanced data were also evaluated. The outcome of each approach is shown and compared in order to select the best performing classification algorithm for the problem at hand.

Keywords – Multi-class classification, machine learning, e-learning, learning analytics, Moodle.


Bogdan Drăgulescu, Marian Bucos, Radu Vasiu.(2015).Predicting Assignment Submissions in a Multi-class Classification Problem.TEM Journal, 4(3), 244-254.


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