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Vol.14, No.4, November 2025. ISSN: 2217-8309 eISSN: 2217-8333
TEM Journal
TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, INFORMATICS Association for Information Communication Technology Education and Science |
Stochastic Modeling of the Spiral Dynamics of Social Conflicts in Public Governance
Stadniichuk Roman, Olga Garafonova, Hanna Zhosan, Roman Yankovoi, Tetiana Shestakovska, Galyna Stasovska
© 2025 Hanna Zhosan, published by UIKTEN. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Citation Information: TEM Journal. Volume 14, Issue 4, Pages 3354-3362, ISSN 2217-8309, DOI: 10.18421/TEM144-43, November 2025.
Received: 05 March 2025.
Abstract:
The article proposes a methodological approach to modeling the dynamics of social conflicts in public governance based on the combination of spiral dynamics and stochastic modeling methods. The developed conceptual model integrates the parameters of social distance, informational influence, and social tension, which jointly determine the trajectory of conflict development. A key feature of the proposed approach is the consideration of stochastic disturbances — random external and internal factors — that significantly affect the evolution of conflict processes and the transition from latent to open confrontation. The application of stochastic modeling allows not only to describe the non-linear dynamics of conflict escalation but also to identify critical bifurcation points, where the public governance system loses the ability to maintain control over the situation. The mathematical formalization of the model combines deterministic differential equations with stochastic perturbation components, which allows for simulating the influence of unpredictable information flows, spontaneous protest actions, and crisis situations. The results of numerical experiments demonstrate that social conflicts develop as a sequence of spiral transitions, where each turn reflects the interaction between growing social distance, the intensity of information pressure, and the accumulation of social tension. The practical value of the proposed approach lies in its application for creating a system of early warning and prevention of social conflicts in public governance. The developed model can serve as a scientific basis for the formation of analytical tools for monitoring conflict situations, identifying risk zones, and developing adaptive management decisions aimed at ensuring social stability in conditions of increased uncertainty and hybrid threats. The research results contribute to the development of modern scientific approaches to conflict management, the introduction of stochastic modeling tools into the practice of public administration, and the improvement of state policy in the field of social stability and security.
Keywords – Social conflicts, public governance, social distance, information flows, social tension. |
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