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Vol.14, No.4, November 2025. ISSN: 2217-8309 eISSN: 2217-8333
TEM Journal
TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, INFORMATICS Association for Information Communication Technology Education and Science |
The Inflationary Effect of Energy Prices: An Empirical Analysis Using Toda Yamamoto Model
Alamgir Kabir, Ferdoushi Ahmed, Md. Sarowar Khaled, K. M. Zahidul Islam, Md. Shahin Mia, Bhuripan Kalnaovkul, Shayla Jahan
© 2025 Ferdoushi Ahmed, published by UIKTEN. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Citation Information: TEM Journal. Volume 14, Issue 4, Pages 3107-3117, ISSN 2217-8309, DOI: 10.18421/TEM144-20, November 2025.
Received: 10 June 2025. Revised: 07 July 2025.
Abstract:
Increased energy prices are considered one of the sources of accelerating inflation since energy is an important factor of production for most of the commodities. This study scrutinizes the inflationary effects of cost of energy in Bangladesh. Time series data on consumer price index, electricity price, and oil price have been used for econometric analysis. Since Augmented Dicky Fuller and Philips Perron stationarity tests show a combination of 1st and 2nd order of integration, Toda Yamamoto (T-Y) test has been applied to detect the cointegrating relationship among the variables. The test results show that both electricity and oil price combinedly affect the inflation. Although electricity prices individually do not affect inflation but, oil price affects the inflation significantly. Hence, it is suggested that government can minimize the energy price by eliminating corruption and inefficiency in the energy sector, by using more renewable energies, and by energy diversification.
Keywords – Inflation, consumer price index (CPI), electricity price, petroleum price, Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality Test. |
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